Evidência empírica sobre a relação entre credibilidade fiscal e credibilidade do Banco Central

O caso brasileiro

Palavras-chave: Política Fiscal, Política monetária, Credibilidade


A partir da década de 1990, vários países adotaram o regime de metas de inflação (RMI). Entretanto, o RMI pode não ser garantia suficiente para a disciplina fiscal, e governos podem continuar adotando políticas fiscais irresponsáveis. A adoção de políticas irresponsáveis, as quais levam à uma fraca credibilidade fiscal, enfraquece a credibilidade do banco central. No presente estudo, investigamos se existe uma correlação entre a credibilidade fiscal e a credibilidade do banco central. O trabalho contribui com a literatura uma vez que apresenta evidências empíricas acerca da relação entre credibilidade fiscal e credibilidade do banco central. A análise empírica emprega diferentes métodos econométricos (OLS, GMM e TOBIT). Os resultados sugerem uma relação positiva entre a credibilidade fiscal a credibilidade do banco central.


Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, Universidade Candido Mendes

Doutor em Economia pelo PPGE/UFF, Coordenador do Mestrado em Economia e Gestão Empresarial da UCAM. Tem experiência na área de Política Monetária, com estudos concentrados no tema Comunicação do Banco Central.


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