Mudança estrutural, hiato tecnológico e capital humano num modelo norte-sul de crescimento com restrição de balanço de pagamentos
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Luciano Ferreira Gabriel
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8321-3022
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Frederico Gonzaga Jayme Jr.
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4617-0107
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José Luis Oreiro
Universidade de Brasília
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4989-2770
Palavras-chave:
Crescimento econômico, Endogeneidade das Elasticidades, Sistema Nacional de Inovações.
Resumo
Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar um modelo macrodinâmico Kaldoriano em que o processo de convergência ou divergência entre o Norte (desenvolvido) e o Sul (em desenvolvimento)
é uma função da mudança estrutural e do hiato tecnológico. A participação da
indústria na economia do Sul e o hiato tecnológico se tornaram endógenos para explicar a
dinâmica do crescimento compatível com o equilíbrio no Balanço de Pagamentos. Para que
ocorra o processo de catching up, há a necessidade do aumento das atividades inovativas do
Sul. O modelo desenvolvido exibe equilíbrios múltiplos: um estável e outro instável. No equilíbrio
estável, o Sul deve apresentar, conjuntamente, maior desenvolvimento do seu Sistema
Nacional de Inovações e elevados efeitos de spillovers industriais em relação ao nível de hiato
tecnológico existente.
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Referências
Abramovitz, M. A. 1986. Catching Up, Forging Ahead and Falling Behind, Journal of Economic History 46: 385-406.
Barbosa Filho, N.H. Exchange rates, growth and inflation. 2006. In: Conference on Development and Change, Campos do Jordão. Disponível: em http://www.policyinnovations.org/ideas/policy_library/data/01383/_res/id=sa_File1/Barbosa_paper_v1.pdf. Acessado em: 31 de Julho de 2014.
Botta, A. 2012. Is Latin American Structuralism Still Relevant? A Theoretical Dissertation on Structural Change and Economic Development. LAP LAMPERT Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. KG.
Botta, A. 2009. A structuralist north-south model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up. Structural change and Economic Dynamics 20:61-73.
Caniëls, M. e Verspagen, B. 2001. Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 11: 307-329.
Castellacci, F. 2002. Technology Gap and Cumulative Growth: Models and outcomes. International Review of Applied Economics, 16(3): 333-346.
Cimole, M. Porcile, G. e Rovira, S. 2010. Structural change and the BOP constraint: why did Latin America fail to converge? Cambridge Journal of Economics 34: 389–411.
Cohen, W.M. & Levinthal, D. 1990. Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation. Administrative Science Quarterly 35: 128-152.
Cohen, W.M. & Levinthal, D. 1989. Innovation and learning: The two faces of R&D, in The Economic Journal 99: 569-96.
Dahlman, C. J. e Nelson R. 1995. Social Absorption Capability, National Systems and Economic Development in Ho Koo – Perkins (a cura di), Social capability and long-term economic growth, St. Martin’s Press, London.
Dixon, R.J. e A.P. Thirlwall. 1975. A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines. Oxford Economic Papers 11:201-214.
Dosi, G., Freeman, C. e Fabiani, S. 1994. The Process of Economic Development: Introducing Some Stylized Facts and Theories on Technologies, Firms and Institutions. Industrial and Corporate Change 3(1).
Dosi, G., Pavitt, K. e Soete, L. 1990. The economics of technological change and international trade, Brighton: Wheatshaf. Economic Review 34. Economica 61: 237-51.
Edquist, C. e Johnson, B. 1997. Institutions and organizations in System of Innovation. In: Edquist, C. System of Innovation: Technologies, institution and organizations, London and Washington: Pinter.
Ferrari, M. A. R; Freitas, F. N. P; Barbosa-Filho, N. H. 2013. A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura com elasticidades endógenas. Revista de Economia Política 33, 1 (130): 60-81, jan-mar.
Ferrari, M. A. R; Freitas, F. N. P; Barbosa-Filho, N. H. 2010. O papel da taxa de câmbio real nos modelos de restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura. Anais do III Encontro da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira, agosto.
Freeman, C. 1995. The National System of Innovation in Historical Perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics 19: 5-24.
Freeman, Christopher e Soete, Luc. 2008. A Economia da Inovação Industrial. Campinas: Editora Unicamp.
Gabriel, L.F., Jayme Jr., F. e Oreiro, J.L. 2017. Economic growth, productive structure and real exchange rate: empirical evidences in panel data. Área 4 - Teoria Econômica e Métodos Quantitativos, ANPEC Nordeste (NATAL/RN).
Godin, Benoît e LANE, Joseph P. 2013. “Pushes and Pulls”: The Hi(story) of the Demand Pull Modelof Innovation. Project on the Intellectual History of Innovation Working Paper 13.
Gould, D.M. e Ruffin, R.J. 1995. Human Capital, Trade, and Economic Growth, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 131: 425–446.
Hausmann, Ricardo, Hidalgo, César A., Bustos, Sebastián, Coscia, Michele, Chung, Sarah, Jimenez, Juan, Simoes, Alexander, Yildirim, Muhammed A. 2011. The atlas of Economic Complexity – Mapping paths to prosperity. Puritan Press.
Jayme Jr., F. G.; Resende, M. F. C. 2009. Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: teoria e a experiência brasileira, In: Michel, R.; Carvalho, L. (Org) Crescimento econômico: setor externo e inflação, Rio de Janeiro: IPEA.
Kaldor, N. 1957. A model of economic growth, Economic Journal, n.67, 591-624.
Kaldor, N. 1966. Causes of the slow rate of economic growth of the United Kingdom, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Krugman, P. 1989. Differences in income elasticities and trends in Real exchange rates. European Economic Review, 33: 1031-1054. North-Holland.
Lall, Sanjaya. 1992. Technological Capabilities and Industrialization. World Development 20(2): 165-186.
León-Ledesma, M. A. 2002. Accumulation, innovation and catching up: an extended cumulative growth model. Cambridge Journal of Economics 26: 201-216.
McCombie, J. e Roberts, M. 2002. The role of the balance of payments in economic growth. In: Setterfield, M. (org.). The Economics of Demand Led-Growth: challenging the supply side vision of the long run. Edward Elgar: Aldershot, 87-114.
McCombie, J. e Thirlwall. 1994. Economic growth and the balance of payments constraint. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Missio, F. 2012. Câmbio e crescimento na abordagem keynesiana-estruturalista. Tese de doutoramento em Economia. Belo Horizonte: Cedeplar/UFMG.
Missio, F. Araújo, R. Jayme Jr., F. 2017. Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 42: 67–75.
Missio, Fabricio J.; Gabriel, Luciano F. 2016. Real exchange rate, technological catching up and spillovers in a balance-of-payments constraint growth model. EconomiA (Brasília) 01: 01-20.
Missio, F., Jayme Jr., F, Conceição, O. 2015. O problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa: contribuições ao debate. Estudos Econômicos, São Paulo, 45(2): 317-346, abr.-jun.
Mowery, D. e Rosenberg, N., 1979. The influence of market demand upon innovation: a critical review of some recentempirical studies. Research Policy 8 (2): 102–153.
Narula, R. 2004. Understanding Absorptive Capacities in an Innovation Systems Context: Consequences for Economic and Employment Growth. DRUID Working Paper 04-02, December.
North, D. 1990. Institution, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Oreiro, José Luís, Nakabashi, Luciano, Silva, Guilherme Jonas Costa, e Souza, Gustavo José Guimarães e. 2012. The economics of demand-led growth. Theory and evidence for Brazil. Cepal Review, no. 106 - April.
Romero, J. P., Silveira, F. e Jayme, Jr. 2017. Mudança estrutural, sistema nacional de inovações e restrição do balanço de pagamentos: teoria e implicações de política. Série Working Paper BNDES/ANPEC No. 17, set.
Schumpeter, J. 1997. Teoria do Desenvolvimento Econômico. Editora Nova Cultural Ltda. São Paulo-SP.
Setterfield, M. (Ed.) 2002. The Economics of Demand-Led Growth: challenging the supply-side vision of the long run (Cheltenham, Edward Elgar), 129–152.
Setterfield, M. 1997. Rapid Growth and Relative Decline: Modelling Macroeconomic Dynamics with Hysteresis, London, Macmillan.
Stiglitz, Joseph. 1993. Endogenous Growth and Cycles. NBER Working Paper 4286, March.
Szirmai, A. 2012. Industrialization as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950-2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23: 406– 420.
Thirlwall, A, P. 2005. A natureza do crescimento econômico: um referencial alternativo para compreender o desempenho das nações. Brasília: IPEA. 112p.
Thirlwall, A. P. 1997. Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Vol. 19(3): 377-385 (Spring 1997).
Thirlwall, A.P. 2011. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rates differences, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, v, 128, p, 45-53, 1979, In: PSL Quarterly Review 64(259): 429-438.
UNCTAD. 2005. Issues Paper on Bridging the technology gap. UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT November, Morocco, 2005.
Verspagen, B. 1993. Uneven growth between interdependent economies. London: Averbury.
Welfens, Paul J. J. Innovations in Macroeconomics. Third Edition. 2010.
Zahra, Shaker A. e Gerard, George. 2002. Absorptive Capacity: A review, reconceptualization and extension. Academy of Management Review 27(2): 185-203.
Barbosa Filho, N.H. Exchange rates, growth and inflation. 2006. In: Conference on Development and Change, Campos do Jordão. Disponível: em http://www.policyinnovations.org/ideas/policy_library/data/01383/_res/id=sa_File1/Barbosa_paper_v1.pdf. Acessado em: 31 de Julho de 2014.
Botta, A. 2012. Is Latin American Structuralism Still Relevant? A Theoretical Dissertation on Structural Change and Economic Development. LAP LAMPERT Academic Publishing GmbH & Co. KG.
Botta, A. 2009. A structuralist north-south model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up. Structural change and Economic Dynamics 20:61-73.
Caniëls, M. e Verspagen, B. 2001. Barriers to knowledge spillovers and regional convergence in an evolutionary model. Journal of Evolutionary Economics 11: 307-329.
Castellacci, F. 2002. Technology Gap and Cumulative Growth: Models and outcomes. International Review of Applied Economics, 16(3): 333-346.
Cimole, M. Porcile, G. e Rovira, S. 2010. Structural change and the BOP constraint: why did Latin America fail to converge? Cambridge Journal of Economics 34: 389–411.
Cohen, W.M. & Levinthal, D. 1990. Absorptive Capacity: A New Perspective on Learning and Innovation. Administrative Science Quarterly 35: 128-152.
Cohen, W.M. & Levinthal, D. 1989. Innovation and learning: The two faces of R&D, in The Economic Journal 99: 569-96.
Dahlman, C. J. e Nelson R. 1995. Social Absorption Capability, National Systems and Economic Development in Ho Koo – Perkins (a cura di), Social capability and long-term economic growth, St. Martin’s Press, London.
Dixon, R.J. e A.P. Thirlwall. 1975. A Model of Regional Growth-Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines. Oxford Economic Papers 11:201-214.
Dosi, G., Freeman, C. e Fabiani, S. 1994. The Process of Economic Development: Introducing Some Stylized Facts and Theories on Technologies, Firms and Institutions. Industrial and Corporate Change 3(1).
Dosi, G., Pavitt, K. e Soete, L. 1990. The economics of technological change and international trade, Brighton: Wheatshaf. Economic Review 34. Economica 61: 237-51.
Edquist, C. e Johnson, B. 1997. Institutions and organizations in System of Innovation. In: Edquist, C. System of Innovation: Technologies, institution and organizations, London and Washington: Pinter.
Ferrari, M. A. R; Freitas, F. N. P; Barbosa-Filho, N. H. 2013. A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura com elasticidades endógenas. Revista de Economia Política 33, 1 (130): 60-81, jan-mar.
Ferrari, M. A. R; Freitas, F. N. P; Barbosa-Filho, N. H. 2010. O papel da taxa de câmbio real nos modelos de restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura. Anais do III Encontro da Associação Keynesiana Brasileira, agosto.
Freeman, C. 1995. The National System of Innovation in Historical Perspective. Cambridge Journal of Economics 19: 5-24.
Freeman, Christopher e Soete, Luc. 2008. A Economia da Inovação Industrial. Campinas: Editora Unicamp.
Gabriel, L.F., Jayme Jr., F. e Oreiro, J.L. 2017. Economic growth, productive structure and real exchange rate: empirical evidences in panel data. Área 4 - Teoria Econômica e Métodos Quantitativos, ANPEC Nordeste (NATAL/RN).
Godin, Benoît e LANE, Joseph P. 2013. “Pushes and Pulls”: The Hi(story) of the Demand Pull Modelof Innovation. Project on the Intellectual History of Innovation Working Paper 13.
Gould, D.M. e Ruffin, R.J. 1995. Human Capital, Trade, and Economic Growth, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 131: 425–446.
Hausmann, Ricardo, Hidalgo, César A., Bustos, Sebastián, Coscia, Michele, Chung, Sarah, Jimenez, Juan, Simoes, Alexander, Yildirim, Muhammed A. 2011. The atlas of Economic Complexity – Mapping paths to prosperity. Puritan Press.
Jayme Jr., F. G.; Resende, M. F. C. 2009. Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: teoria e a experiência brasileira, In: Michel, R.; Carvalho, L. (Org) Crescimento econômico: setor externo e inflação, Rio de Janeiro: IPEA.
Kaldor, N. 1957. A model of economic growth, Economic Journal, n.67, 591-624.
Kaldor, N. 1966. Causes of the slow rate of economic growth of the United Kingdom, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Krugman, P. 1989. Differences in income elasticities and trends in Real exchange rates. European Economic Review, 33: 1031-1054. North-Holland.
Lall, Sanjaya. 1992. Technological Capabilities and Industrialization. World Development 20(2): 165-186.
León-Ledesma, M. A. 2002. Accumulation, innovation and catching up: an extended cumulative growth model. Cambridge Journal of Economics 26: 201-216.
McCombie, J. e Roberts, M. 2002. The role of the balance of payments in economic growth. In: Setterfield, M. (org.). The Economics of Demand Led-Growth: challenging the supply side vision of the long run. Edward Elgar: Aldershot, 87-114.
McCombie, J. e Thirlwall. 1994. Economic growth and the balance of payments constraint. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
Missio, F. 2012. Câmbio e crescimento na abordagem keynesiana-estruturalista. Tese de doutoramento em Economia. Belo Horizonte: Cedeplar/UFMG.
Missio, F. Araújo, R. Jayme Jr., F. 2017. Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 42: 67–75.
Missio, Fabricio J.; Gabriel, Luciano F. 2016. Real exchange rate, technological catching up and spillovers in a balance-of-payments constraint growth model. EconomiA (Brasília) 01: 01-20.
Missio, F., Jayme Jr., F, Conceição, O. 2015. O problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa: contribuições ao debate. Estudos Econômicos, São Paulo, 45(2): 317-346, abr.-jun.
Mowery, D. e Rosenberg, N., 1979. The influence of market demand upon innovation: a critical review of some recentempirical studies. Research Policy 8 (2): 102–153.
Narula, R. 2004. Understanding Absorptive Capacities in an Innovation Systems Context: Consequences for Economic and Employment Growth. DRUID Working Paper 04-02, December.
North, D. 1990. Institution, Institutional Change and Economic Performance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Oreiro, José Luís, Nakabashi, Luciano, Silva, Guilherme Jonas Costa, e Souza, Gustavo José Guimarães e. 2012. The economics of demand-led growth. Theory and evidence for Brazil. Cepal Review, no. 106 - April.
Romero, J. P., Silveira, F. e Jayme, Jr. 2017. Mudança estrutural, sistema nacional de inovações e restrição do balanço de pagamentos: teoria e implicações de política. Série Working Paper BNDES/ANPEC No. 17, set.
Schumpeter, J. 1997. Teoria do Desenvolvimento Econômico. Editora Nova Cultural Ltda. São Paulo-SP.
Setterfield, M. (Ed.) 2002. The Economics of Demand-Led Growth: challenging the supply-side vision of the long run (Cheltenham, Edward Elgar), 129–152.
Setterfield, M. 1997. Rapid Growth and Relative Decline: Modelling Macroeconomic Dynamics with Hysteresis, London, Macmillan.
Stiglitz, Joseph. 1993. Endogenous Growth and Cycles. NBER Working Paper 4286, March.
Szirmai, A. 2012. Industrialization as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950-2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23: 406– 420.
Thirlwall, A, P. 2005. A natureza do crescimento econômico: um referencial alternativo para compreender o desempenho das nações. Brasília: IPEA. 112p.
Thirlwall, A. P. 1997. Reflections on the Concept of Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics Vol. 19(3): 377-385 (Spring 1997).
Thirlwall, A.P. 2011. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rates differences, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, v, 128, p, 45-53, 1979, In: PSL Quarterly Review 64(259): 429-438.
UNCTAD. 2005. Issues Paper on Bridging the technology gap. UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT November, Morocco, 2005.
Verspagen, B. 1993. Uneven growth between interdependent economies. London: Averbury.
Welfens, Paul J. J. Innovations in Macroeconomics. Third Edition. 2010.
Zahra, Shaker A. e Gerard, George. 2002. Absorptive Capacity: A review, reconceptualization and extension. Academy of Management Review 27(2): 185-203.
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2019-09-30
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
Números do Financiamento 309982/2015-4
