Vulnerabilidade externa e os ciclos econômicos no Brasil pós-Plano Real
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea173917Palavras-chave:
vulnerabilidade externa, ciclos econômicos, fator dinâmicoResumo
Economias emergentes dependem de um fluxo contínuo de recursos externos e são suscetíveis a ataques especulativos contra sua moeda, em razão de choques externos ou de fundamentos macroeconômicos frágeis. Este artigo tem por objetivo avaliar o impacto da fragilidade externa nos ciclos econômicos do Brasil entre 1996 e 2019. O trabalho utiliza o modelo de fator dinâmico para derivar um indicador de vulnerabilidade externa e o método dos momentos generalizado para analisar a importância da vulnerabilidade externa para as flutuações econômicas. Os resultados mostram que uma crescente vulnerabilidade externa está associada à expansão da atividade econômica no Brasil.
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