Evolução das elasticidades de importação e lei de Thirlwall: uma análise Bayesiana para a América Latina (1961-2018)

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615132dam

Palavras-chave:

Elasticidade de importação, Lei de Thirwall, Crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos, América latina, Estimação Bayesiana, Parâmetros tempo-variante

Resumo

O objetivo desse estudo é analisar a evolução das elasticidades de importação e verificar a validade da versão original da Lei de Thirwall para oito países da América Latina durante o período de 1961 a 2018. Dadas as questões econométricas inerentes a regressões com parâmetros variantes no tempo, será utilizada uma abordagem bayesiana para a estimação. A fim de levar em consideração a presença de heterocedasticidade condicional, é incluída a especificação com volatilidade estocástica no modelo. Enquanto algumas economias da América Latina mostraram um comportamento estável, as elasticidades-renda de importação para o Brasil, Colômbia e México apresentaram uma tendência de elevação no período analisado. Em relação à validade da Lei de Thirwall, há evidências de que o balanço de pagamentos (BOP) coloca uma restrição à performance de crescimento em todos os oito países selecionados da América Latina.

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Biografia do Autor

Diego Ferreira, Faculdade de Educação Superior do Paraná

Professor

Andreza Aparecida Palma, Federal University of São Carlos.Department of Economics

Professor

Marcelo Luiz Curado, Federal University of Paraná. Department of Economics

Professor

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Publicado

2021-09-30

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