Choques globais e respostas de comércio – termos de troca, curva J e condição de Marshall-Lerner: evidências para o Brasil

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575431mfmj

Palavras-chave:

Curva J, Condição de Marshall-Lerner, Termos de troca, Choques globais, SVAR

Resumo

A tradicional análise para avaliar impactos de choques nos termos de troca (TOT) pode ser um experimento irreal, especialmente para pequenas economias abertas em que TOT é endogenamente determinado pelo estado da economia mundial. A relação dinâmica entre TOT e balança comercial deve assim considerar a natureza dos choques que determinam conjuntamente preços e renda, doméstica e internacionalmente. Estimamos SVAR global bayesiano, cuja estrutura permite fácil comunicação com tradicionais modelos de equilíbrio geral dinâmico estocástico, para avaliar a presença da curva J e da condição de Marshall-Lerner (MLC) para a economia brasileira na presença de inovações que alegamos assemelhar-se a choques de oferta e demanda globais. Não foi encontrada a curva J para o comércio agregado e nem para comércio de combustíveis, de bens de capital e de consumo. Apesar da MLC não ser verificada apenas para bens de capital, o volume exportado e TOT não se correlacionam como esperado por teorias tradicionais, pois melhorias no primeiro ocorrem quando o segundo aprecia-se. Os resultados sugerem que o efeito renda é o principal determinante da dinâmica da balança comercial e para a validade da MLC, dominando assim o efeito dos termos de troca.

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30-09-2024

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Ferreira, M. S., & Januário, M. R. da C. (2024). Choques globais e respostas de comércio – termos de troca, curva J e condição de Marshall-Lerner: evidências para o Brasil. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 54(3), 1-43. https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575431mfmj