Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in Brazil

Autores

  • Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón Universidade Federal da Paraíba
  • Marcelo Savino Portugal Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612009000200002

Palavras-chave:

política monetária, assimetrias, choques negativos e positivos, ciclo de negócios, modelos Markovswitching

Resumo

Neste trabalho, examinamos se os efeitos das ações de política monetária sobre o produto são assimétricos no Brasil. Para isto, estimamos modelos Markov-switching que permitem que choques positivos e negativos afetem a taxa de crescimento do produto de forma assimétrica nos estados de expansão e recessão econômica. Em geral, os resultados mostram que: i) os efeitos reais de choques monetários negativos são maiores do que os de choques positivos em uma expansão; ii) em uma recessão, os efeitos reais de choques positivos e negativos são iguais; iii) não há evidência de assimetria entre os efeitos de políticas monetárias contracíclicas; iv) não se pode afirmar que os efeitos de choques positivos (ou negativos) dependem da fase do ciclo econômico.

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Publicado

2009-06-30

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