Assimetrias no repasse cambial para a inflação: Uma análise empírica para o Brasil (1999-2013)

Autores

  • Débora Mesquita Pimentel Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Economia
  • Viviane Luporini Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Economia
  • André de Melo Modenesi Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Economia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-416146233dva

Palavras-chave:

Inflação, taxa de câmbio, repasse cambial, assimetria, Brasil

Resumo

O presente artigo analisou o repasse cambial para os preços ao consumidor (IPCA) no Brasil no período entre 1999 e 2013, verificando através de diversas especificações econométricas a existência de assimetrias no repasse. Utilizando uma decomposição da variável câmbio, entre depreciações e apreciações, o artigo estima uma sequência de modelos SVAR com diferentes restrições de identificação. Os resultados, robustos para uma gama de especificações, indicam forte assimetria no repasse cambial.  A média simples das diversas estimações indica um repasse de 11.38% no caso de depreciação e de 2.84% no caso de apreciação da moeda brasileira em relação ao dólar americano.

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Publicado

2016-06-30

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