Efeitos do gasto do governo sobre o consumo privado: evidências de países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-416146151gfsPalavras-chave:
Consumo Privado, Gastos do Governo, Cointegração em Painel, Países Desenvolvidos, Países em DesenvolvimentoResumo
Recentemente, os efeitos dos gastos do governo sobre o consumo privado tem sido analisados por meio de modelos macroeconômicos em que parte dos agentes suavizam seu consumo intertemporalmente, enquanto os demais, restritos ao crédito, consomem baseados na renda disponível. Sob esta abordagem, argumentamos que existe uma relação de cointegração entre consumo privado, gasto do governo e renda disponível que nos permite analisar se o gasto do governo crowds in ou crowds out o consumo privado.
Estimamos tal relação para 48 países usando modelos de correção de erros em painel com fatores comuns e, sob a hipótese de que em países em desenvolvimento é maior a proporção de agentes não-otimizadores, analisamos a existência de efeitos distintos entre países desenvolvidos e em desenvolvimento. Os resultados indicam que o gasto do governo crowds in o consumo privado no longo prazo e que os efeitos são maiores nos países em desenvolvimento relativamente aos desenvolvidos.
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Copyright (c) 2016 Gian Paulo Soave, Fabio Augusto Reis Gomes, Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai
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