Evolução das elasticidades de importação e lei de Thirlwall: uma análise Bayesiana para a América Latina (1961-2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615132damPalavras-chave:
Elasticidade de importação, Lei de Thirwall, Crescimento restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos, América latina, Estimação Bayesiana, Parâmetros tempo-varianteResumo
O objetivo desse estudo é analisar a evolução das elasticidades de importação e verificar a validade da versão original da Lei de Thirwall para oito países da América Latina durante o período de 1961 a 2018. Dadas as questões econométricas inerentes a regressões com parâmetros variantes no tempo, será utilizada uma abordagem bayesiana para a estimação. A fim de levar em consideração a presença de heterocedasticidade condicional, é incluída a especificação com volatilidade estocástica no modelo. Enquanto algumas economias da América Latina mostraram um comportamento estável, as elasticidades-renda de importação para o Brasil, Colômbia e México apresentaram uma tendência de elevação no período analisado. Em relação à validade da Lei de Thirwall, há evidências de que o balanço de pagamentos (BOP) coloca uma restrição à performance de crescimento em todos os oito países selecionados da América Latina.
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