Previdência social e migração: O que acontece com os trabalhadores que saem do Brasil e se aposentam na Espanha e em Portugal?

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615113gcr

Palavras-chave:

Previdência social, Aposentadoria, Migração, Indicadores previdenciários

Resumo

Este artigo visa analisar os impactos sobre trabalhadores brasileiros que migram durante a vida ativa para Espanha ou para Portugal e se aposentam nestes países. Isto é realizado com base nos acordos previdenciários entre essas nações, levando em consideração as diferentes regras de contribuição, condições de elegibilidade e regras de cálculo da aposentadoria. São calculados os valores da aposentadoria e três indicadores previdenciários: Taxa de Reposição (TR), Taxa Interna de Retorno (TIR) e Alíquota Necessária (AliqNec) para cada situação analisada. Adicionalmente, propõe-se um indicador para mensurar a variação na contribuição necessária para custear o benefício no país de destino, decorrente da migração. Os principais resultados mostram que, embora os valores de TR possam aumentar com a migração (a não ser para os indivíduos de renda mais alta), os demais indicadores tendem a ser menores, em particular pela idade de aposentadoria mais elevada em Portugal e na Espanha.

Downloads

Os dados de download ainda não estão disponíveis.

Biografia do Autor

  • Luís Eduardo Afonso, Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade

    Professor. Departamento de Contabilidade e Atuária da Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade.

Referências

Afonso, Luís Eduardo. 2016. “Progressividade e Aspectos Distributivos Na Previdência Social: Uma Análise Com o Emprego Dos Microdados Dos Registros Administrativos Do RGPS.” Revista Brasileira de Economia 70, no.1: 3–30. https://doi.org/10.5935/0034-7140.20160001.

Afonso, Luís Eduardo. 2018. “Reforma Temer: Os Impactos Da PEC 287/2016 Sobre o RGPS.” In Desafios Da Nação: Artigos de Apoio, v. 2, editado por João Alberto de Negri, Bruno César Araújo, e Ricardo Bacelette, 253–84. Brasília: IPEA. http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/livros/livros/180413_desafios_da_nacao_artigos_vol2_cap23.pdf.

Alves, José, Daniela Craveiro, Maria Teresa Medeiros Garcia, e Paula Albuquerque. 2019. “The Impact of International Migration on the Public Pension System: The Case of Portugal.” International Social Security Review 72, no.1: 107–28. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12197.

Avato, Johanna, Johannes Koettl, e Rachel Sabates-Wheeler. 2010. “Social Security Regimes, Global Estimates, and Good Practices: The Status of Social Protection for International Migrants.” World Development 38, no.4: 455–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.10.003.

Barr, Nicholas, e Peter Diamond. 2006. “The Economics of Pensions.” Oxford Review of Economic Policy 22, no.1: 15–39. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grj002.

Becker, Gary S. 1975. Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with Special Reference to Education. 2nd ed. New York: Columbia University Press. http://papers.nber.org/books/beck75-1.

Bodvarsson, Örn B., e Hendrik Van den Berg. 2013. “The Determinants of International Migration: Theory.” In The Economics of Immigration 27–57. New York, NY: Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-2116-0_2.

Borjas, George J. 1999. “The Economic Analysis of Immigration.” In Handbook of Labor Economics 3 Part A:1697–1760. Amsterdam: Elsevier Masson SAS. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4463(99)03009-6.

Bridges, Benjamin, e Sharmila Choudhury. 2007. “Social Security as a Retirement Resource for Near-Retirees, by Race and Ethnicity, Nativity, Benefit Type, and Disability Status.” ORES Working Paper Series 109. Washington, D.C. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/workingpapers/wp109.html.

Caetano, Marcelo Abi-Ramia. 2006. “Subsídios Cruzados Na Previdência Social Brasileira.” Texto Para Discussão - IPEA 1211. Brasília. http://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_1211.pdf.

Campos, Marden Barbosa De. 2015. “Seletividade e Migração.” In População, Espaço e Sustentabilidade: Contribuições Para o Desenvolvimento Do Brasil, editado por Miguel Bruno, 187–202. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/visualizacao/livros/liv94508.pdf.

Clingman, Michael, Kyle Burkhalter, e Chris Chaplain. 2014. “Internal Real Rates of Return under the OASDI Program for Hypothetical Workers.” Actuarial Note 2014.5. Baltimore, Maryland. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran5/an2014-5.pdf.

Clingman, Michael, Kyle Burkhalter, e Chris Chaplain. 2019. “Internal Real Rates of Return under the OASDI Program for Hypothetical Workers.” Actuarial Note 2018.5. Baltimore, Maryland. https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran5/an2018-5.pdf.

Cohen, Lee, e Howard Iams. 2007. “Income Adequacy and Social Security Differences between the Foreign-Born and U.S.-Born.” International Migration Review 41, no.3: 553–78. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2007.00085.x.

Collado, M. Dolores, Iñigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe, e Guadalupe Valera. 2004. “Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State.” International Tax and Public Finance 11, no.3: 335–53. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:ITAX.0000021975.20256.ff.

Couch, Kenneth A., Gayle L. Reznik, Christopher R. Tamborini, e Howard M. Iams. 2017. “The Distributional Impact of Social Security Policy Options.” Research on Aging 39, no.1: 135–65. https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027516656140.

Czaika, Mathias, e Hein de Haas. 2014. “The Globalization of Migration: Has the World Become More Migratory?” International Migration Review 48, no.2: 283–323. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12095.

Díaz-Gimenez, Javier, e Julián Díaz-Saavedra. 2017. “The Future of Spanish Pensions.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 16, no.02: 233–65. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747216000093.

Direção-Geral da Segurança Social (DGSS). 2020. “Código Dos Regimes Contributivos Do Sistema Previdencial de Segurança Social: Redação Em Vigor.” Lisboa: Instituto de Segurança Social. http://www.seg-social.pt/documents/10152/15009350/Código contributivo - redação em vigor/1e56fad5-0e2a-42c2-b94c-194c4aa64f74.

Dixon, John. 1998. “Comparative Social Security: The Challenge of Evaluation.” Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice 1, no.1: 61–95. https://doi.org/10.1080/13876989808412616.

Docquier, Frédéric, e Luca Marchiori. 2012. “The Impact of MENA-to-EU Migration in the Context of Demographic Change.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 11, no.2: 243–84. https://doi.org/10.1017/S147474721100028X.

Fenge, Robert, e François Peglow. 2018. “Decomposition of Demographic Effects on the German Pension System.” Journal of the Economics of Ageing 12 (February): 61–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.01.001.

Fornalé, Elisa. 2017. “Global-Regional Interaction to Extend Access to Social Protection for Migrant Workers: Insights from ASEAN and MERCOSUR.” International Social Security Review 70, no.3: 31–52. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12140.

Forteza, Alvaro. 2010. “The Portability of Pension Rights: General Principles and the Caribbean Case.” Development Policy Review 28, no.2: 237–55. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7679.2010.00483.x.

Forteza, Alvaro, e Guzmán Ourens. 2009. “How Much Do Latin American Pension Programs Promise to Pay Back?”. Social Protection Discussion Paper 0927. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/773451468047801758/How-much-do-Latin-American-pension-programs-promise-to-pay-back.

Genser, Bernd, e Robert Holzmann. 2020. “Pensions in a Globalizing World: How Do (N)DC and (N)DB Schemes Fare and Compare on Portability and Taxation?” In Progress and Challenges of Nonfinancial Defined Contribution Pension Schemes, Volume 2: Addressing Gender, Administration and Communication, editado por Robert Holzmann, Edward Palmer, Robert Palacios, e Stefano Sacchi, 289–316. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32439.

Godínez-Olivares, Humberto, María del Carmen Boado-Penas, e Steven Haberman. 2016. “Optimal Strategies for Pay-as-You-Go Pension Finance: A Sustainability Framework.” Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 69 (July): 117–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2016.05.001.

Greenwood, Michael J., e John M. McDowell. 2011. “USA Immigration Policy, Source-Country Social Programs, and the Skill Composition of Legal USA Immigration.” Journal of Population Economics 24, no.2: 521–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-009-0273-4.

Greenwood, Michael J., John M. McDowell, Donald M. Waldman, e Steven S. Zahniser. 1999. “The Influence of Social Programs in Source Countries on Various Classes of U.S. Immigration.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 94, no.445: 64–74. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1999.10473819.

Gustman, Alan L., e Thomas L. Steinmeier. 2001. “How Effective Is Redistribution under the Social Security Benefit Formula?” Journal of Public Economics 82, no.1: 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(00)00153-5.

Holzmann, Robert. 2016. “Bilateral Social Security Agreements and Pensions Portability: A Study of Four Migrant Corridors between EU and Non-EU Countries.” International Social Security Review 69, no.3–4: 109–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12110.

Holzmann, Robert, e Jacques Wels. 2020. “The Cross‐border Portability of Social Security Benefits: Status and Progress?” International Social Security Review 73, no.1: 65–97. https://doi.org/10.1111/issr.12228.

Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016a. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the Austria-Turkey Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1602. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26436651/assessing-benefit-portability-international-migrant-workers-review-austria-turkey-bilateral-social-security-agreement.

Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016b. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the Belgium-Morocco Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1603. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26436648/assessing-benefit-portability-international-migrant-workers-review-belgium-morocco-bilateral-social-security-agreement.

Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016c. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the France-Morocco Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” 1604. Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1604. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/313201484110324776/Assessing-benefit-portability-for-international-migrant-workers-a-review-of-the-France-Morocco-bilateral-social-security-agreement.

Holzmann, Robert, Jacques Wels, e Pamela Dale. 2016d. “Assessing Benefit Portability for International Migrant Workers: A Review of the Germany-Turkey Bilateral Social Security Agreement.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1606. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/06/26442094/assessing-benefit-portability-international-migrant-workers-review-germany-turkey-bilateral-social-security-agreement.

Holzmann, Robert, e Martin Werding. 2015. “Portability of Social Benefits: Research on a Critical Topic in Globalization.” CESifo Economic Studies 61, no.2: 335–45. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifv009.

INSS. 2007. “Convenção Multilateral Ibero-Americana de Segurança Social.” Brasília: INSS. https://www.inss.gov.br/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Convencao-Multilateral-Iberoamericana-Seguranca-Social.pdf.

INSS. 2019. “Agora é 86/96: Fórmula Para Cálculo Do Valor Da Aposentadoria Por Tempo de Contribuição é Atualizado.” INSS. 2019. https://www.inss.gov.br/agora-e-86-96-formula-para-calculo-do-valor-da-aposentadoria-por-tempo-de-contribuicao-e-atualizado/.

International Labour Organization (ILO). 2014. “Facts on Social Security.” 2014. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_067588.pdf.

International Social Security Association (ISSA). 2010. “Demographic Changes and Social Security: Challenges and Opportunities.” In World Social Security Forum. 30th ISSA General Assembly, 21. Cape Town: International Social Security Association.

ISSA. 2018. “10 Global Challenges for Social Security. Asia and Pacific.” Geneva. https://www.issa.int/en/-/10-global-challenges-for-social-security-asia-pacific.

La Fuente, Angel De, e Rafael Domenéch. 2013. “The Financial Impact of Spanish Pension Reform: A Quick Estimate.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 12, no.01: 111–37. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747212000182.

Labouré, Marion. 2019. “Pensions: The Impact of Migrations and Cross-Border Workers in a Small Open Economy.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 18, no.2: 247–70. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747217000464.

Lacomba, Juan A., e Francisco Lagos. 2010. “Immigration and Pension Benefits in the Host Country.” Economica 77, no.306: 283–95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2008.00770.x.

Lee, Everett S. 1966. “A Theory of Migration.” Demography 3, no.1: 47. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063.

Lewis, W. Arthur. 1954. “Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour.” The Manchester School 22, no.2: 139–91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.1954.tb00021.x.

Liddo, Giuseppe Di. 2018. “Immigration and PAYG Pension Systems in the Presence of Increasing Life Expectancy.” Economics Letters 162 (January): 56–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.10.024.

Liebman, Jeffrey B. 2002. “Redistribution in the Current U.S. Social Security System.” In The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, editado por Martin Feldstein e Jeffrey B. Liebman, I:11–48. Cambridge, MA.: University of Chicago Press. http://www.nber.org/chapters/c9747.pdf.

Lopez, Mary J., e Sita Slavov. 2019. “Do Immigrants Delay Retirement and Social Security Claiming?” NBER Working Paper Series 25518. Cambridge, MA. http://www.nber.org/papers/w25518.

Barbon, Júlia. 2017. “Lei de Migração: O Que Muda Nas Regras Para Estrangeiros No Brasil.” Folha de São Paulo, Maio 14, 2017. https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2017/05/1883696-lei-de-migracao-o-que-muda-nas-regras-para-estrangeiros-no-brasil.shtml

Massey, Douglas S., Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, e J. Edward Taylor. 1993. “Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal.” Population and Development Review 19, no.3: 431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938462.

Massey, Douglas S., Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, e J. Edward Taylor. 1998. Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millenium. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Ministerio de Empleo y Seguridad Social (MESS). 2019. “Bases y Tipos de Cotización 2016.” Madrid: Ministerio de Empleo y Seguridad Social. http://www.seg-social.es/wps/portal/wss/internet/Trabajadores/CotizacionRecaudacionTrabajadores/36537.

Modigliani, Franco, e Richard Brumberg. 1954. “Utility Analysis and The Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data.” In PostKeynesian Economics, editado por K. Kurihara, 388–436. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.

Neysmith, Sheila M., e Jane Aronson. 2012. “Global Aging and Comparative Research: Pushing Theoretical and Methodological Boundaries.” Journal of Aging Studies 26, no.3: 227–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaging.2012.02.001.

Pallares-Miralles, Montserrat, Carolina Romero, e Edward Whitehouse. 2012. “International Patterns of Pension Provision II: A Worldwide Overview of Facts and Figures.” Social Protection & Labor Discussion Paper 1211. Washington, D.C. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/143611468168560687/pdf/703190NWP0SPL000Box370035B00PUBLIC0.pdf.

Quinn, Joseph F. 1999. “Criteria for Evaluating Social Security Reform.” In Prospects for Social Security Reform, editado por Olivia S. Mitchell, Robert J. Myers, e Howard Young, 37–59. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press. https://pensionresearchcouncil.wharton.upenn.edu/publications/books/prospects-for-social-security-reform/.

Ranis, Gustav, e John C. H. Fei. 1961. “A Theory of Economic Development.” The American Economic Review LI: 533–65. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1812785.

Ravenstein, Ernst Georg. 1889. “The Laws of Migration.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 52: 241–305.

Sabates-Wheeler, Rachel, e Johannes Koettl. 2010. “Social Protection for Migrants: The Challenges of Delivery in the Context of Changing Migration Flows.” International Social Security Review 63, no.3–4: 115–44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.2010.01372.x.

Santos, Mauro Augusto dos, Alisson Flávio Barbieri, José Alberto Magno de Carvalho, e Carla Jorge Machado. 2010. “Migração: Uma Revisão Sobre Algumas Das Principais Teorias.” Textos Para Discussão 398. Belo Horizonte. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6314064.pdf.

Settergren, Ole, e Boguslaw D. Mikula. 2005. “The Rate of Return of Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems: A More Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest.” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 4, no.2: 115–38. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1474747205002064.

Sevak, Purvi, e Lucie Schmidt. 2014. “Immigrants and Retirement Resources.” Social Security Bulletin 74, no.1: 27–45. https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v74n1/v74n1p27.html.

Sjaastad, Larry A. 1962. “The Costs and Returns of Human Migration.” Journal of Political Economy 70, no.5: 80–93. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1829105%0A.

Skeldon, Ronald. 2012. “Migration Transitions Revisited: Their Continued Relevance for The Development of Migration Theory.” Population, Space and Place 18, no.2: 154–66. https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.667.

Social Security Administration (SSA) e International Social Security Association (ISSA). 2016. “Social Security Programs Throughout the World: Europe, 2016.” Washington, D.C. http://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw/2012-2013/asia/qatar.html.

Tamagno, Edward. 1994. “Coordination of Social Security Programmes of Developed and Developing Countries.” International Social Security Review 47, no.1: 3–13. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.1994.tb01097.x.

Taylor, J. E. 1986. “Differential Migration,Networks, Information and Risks.” In Research in Human Capital and Development, editado por Oded Stark, 147–71. Greenwich, CT.: JAI Press.

Todaro, Michael P. 1969. “A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries.” The American Economic Review 59, no.1: 138–49. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1811100.

United Nations. 2017. “The World Counted 258 Million International Migrants in 2017, Representing 3.4 per Cent of Global Population.” Popfacts December, no. 5: 1–4. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/populationfacts/docs/MigrationPopFacts20175.pdf.

Whiteford, Peter. 1995. “The Use of Replacement Rates in International Comparisons of Benefit Systems.” International Social Security Review 48, no.2: 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-246X.1995.tb00427.x.

Downloads

Publicado

09-03-2021

Edição

Seção

Artigo

Dados de financiamento

Como Citar

Carvalho, G. M. de, & Afonso, L. E. (2021). Previdência social e migração: O que acontece com os trabalhadores que saem do Brasil e se aposentam na Espanha e em Portugal?. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 51(1), 73-109. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41615113gcr