Crise Hídrica em São Paulo em 2014: Seca e Desmatamento

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2179-0892.geousp.2015.100879

Palavras-chave:

chuvas, seca, desmatamento

Resumo

O presente estudo apresenta uma análise hidrometeorológica da estação chuvosa 2013/2014 na Região Sudeste do Brasil, com o objetivo de diagnosticar a seca e seu impacto na disponibilidade hídrica do Estado de São Paulo. Foram analisados os totais acumulados da precipitação, os principais sistemas meteorológicos atuantes durante o período chuvoso (dezembro-fevereiro) e o papel da floresta Amazônica como uma das fontes de umidade para o Brasil Central e regiões sul-sudeste. As análises revelaram que os totais acumulados foram significativamente abaixo dos valores médios, com desvios negativos em torno de 62%, temperaturas 2.5 oC acima da média e um aumento no consumo de água, esses fatores conjuntamente geraram uma crise hídrica sem precedente desde 1960.    

Downloads

Os dados de download ainda não estão disponíveis.

Biografia do Autor

  • Jose Antonio Marengo, Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais

    Pesquisador Titular e chefe de pesquisas no CEMADEN.

  • Lincoln M Alves, Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais

    Pesquisador do CCSt INPE.

Referências

Angelini IM, Garstang M, Davis RE, Hayden B, Fitzjarrald DR, Legates DR, Greco S, Macko S, Connors V (2011) On the coupling between vegetation and the atmosphere. Theor Appl Climatol, 105:243-261. doi: 10.1007/s00704-010-0377-5.

Arraut JM, Nobre CA, Barbosa H, Obregon G, Marengo, J (2012) Aerial Rivers and Lakes: Looking at Large-Scale Moisture Transport and Its Relation to Amazonia and to Subtropical Rainfall in South America, Journal of Climate, 25:543-556, DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4189.1

Brubaker KL, Entekhabi D, Eagleson PS (1993) Estimation of Continental Precipitation Recycling. Journal of Climate, 6:1077-1089.

Cavalcanti IFA, Kouksy VE (2001) Drought in Brazil during summer and fall of 2001 and associated circulation features. Climanalise, 1: 1-10 (available from: http://climanalise.cptec.inpe.br/~rclimanl/revista/pdf/criseing.pdf)

Dobrovolski, R., Rattis, L., Water collapse in Brazil: the danger of relying on what you neglect. Nat Conservacao. 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ncon.2015.03.006

Eltahir EAB, Bras RL (1994) Precipitation recycling in the Amazon basin. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 120:861-880.

Espinoza JC, Marengo JA, Ronchail J, Molina J, Noriega L, Guyot JL (2014). The extreme 2014 flood in South-Western Amazon basin: The role of Tropical-Subtropical South Atlantic SST gradient, Environ. Res. Lett. 9: 124007 (9pp).

Makarieva AM, Gorshkov VG (2007) Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 11:1013–1033.

Makarieva AM, Gorshkov VG, Sheil D, Nobre AD, Li BL (2013) Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13:1039–1056, doi:10.5194/ acp-13-1039-2013.

Magrin GO, Marengo JA, Boulanger JP, Buckeridge MS, Castellanos E, Poveda G, Scarano FR, Vicuna S (2014). “Central and South America” In Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In Press, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Marengo JA, Soares WR, Saulo C, and Nicolini M (2004) Climatology of the low-level jet east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalyses: Characteristics and temporal variability, J. Climate, 17:2261–2280.

Marengo JA, Liebmann B, Grimm, AM, Misra V, Silva Dias PL, Cavalcanti IFA, Carvalho LMV, Berbery H, Ambrizzi T, Vera CS, Saulo, AC, Nogues Paegle J, Zipser E, Seth A, Alves LM (2012), Recent Developments on the South American monsoon System, Int. J Climatology, 32:1-21.

Marengo JA, Valverde MC, and Obregon GO (2013) Assessments of observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP). Climate Research, 57:61-72.

Marengo JA, Alves LM, Espinoza JC, and Ronchail J (2014) Tropical South America east of the Andes. [in “State of the Climate in 2014”], Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 95:S170-S171.

Marengo JA, Espinoza, JC (2015) Extreme Seasonal Droughts and Floods in Amazonia: Causes, Trends and Impacts, In press, Int. J. Climatology.

Nobre, A (2014) O Futuro Climático da Amazônia: Relatório de Avaliação Científica, ARA-Articulação Regional Amazônica, Sao Paulo, 42 pp.

Nobre C, Marengo JA, Seluchi ME, Cuartas A, Alves LM, Camargo H (2015) The record drought and water crises of summer 2014 in Southeastern Brasil, Bull Amer Met Soc, (accepted)

Obregón GO, Marengo JA, Nobre CA (2014) Rainfall and climate variability: long-term trends in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo in the 20th century, 61: 93–107. doi: 10.3354/cr01241

Oliveira FNM (2011) A climatology of Southern Hemisphere Blockings: observations, simulations of the 20th century and future climate change scenarios. In Ph.D Dissertation. Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences, University of S˜ao Paulo, Brazil, 158 pp..

Oliveira FNM., Carvalho LMV, and Ambrizzi T (2014) A new climatology for Southern Hemisphere blockings in the winter and the combined effect of ENSO and SAM phases. Int. J. Climatol., 34:1676–1692, doi:10.1002/joc.3795.

Rocha VM, Silva Correia FW, Morelli Fonseca PA (2015) Reciclagem de precipitação na Amazônia: Um estudo de revisão, Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, 30: 59 – 70.

Sheil D, Murdiyarso D (2009) How forests attract rain: an examination of a new hypothesis. Bioscience 59:341–347.

Silva Dias MAF, Dias J, Carvalho L, Freitas E, and Silva Dias PL (2012) Changes in extreme daily rainfall for São Paulo, Brazil. Climatic Change, 116:705-722.

Soares W, Marengo JA (2009) Assessments of moisture fluxes east of the Andes in South America in a global warming scenario, Int. J. Climatol, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1800

Trenberth KE (1999) Atmospheric Moisture Recycling: Role of Advection and Local Evaporation. Journal of Climate, 12:1368-1381.

Vera C, Baez J, Douglas M, Emmanuel CB, Marengo J, Meitin J, Nicolini J, Nogues-Paegle J, Penalba O, Salio P, Saulo C, Silva Dias MA, Silva Dias PL, Zipser E (2006) The South American Low Level Jet Experiment. Bull Amer Met Soc, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-87-1-63

Downloads

Publicado

2015-12-06

Edição

Seção

Dossiê "Crise hídrica no Estado de São Paulo"

Como Citar

MARENGO, Jose Antonio; ALVES, Lincoln M. Crise Hídrica em São Paulo em 2014: Seca e Desmatamento. GEOUSP Espaço e Tempo (Online), São Paulo, Brasil, v. 19, n. 3, p. 485–494, 2015. DOI: 10.11606/issn.2179-0892.geousp.2015.100879. Disponível em: https://www.revistas.usp.br/geousp/article/view/100879.. Acesso em: 20 abr. 2024.