Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of an Endangered Species: Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae)

Authors

  • Carolina Toranza Grupo Biodiversidad y Ecología de la Conservación (BEC), Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República Centro Interdisciplinario de Respuesta al Cambio y la Variabilidad Climática (CIRCVC), Espacio Intedisciplinario, Universidad de la República.
  • Raúl Maneyro Laboratorio de Sistemática e Historia Natural de Vertebrados, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la República

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2316-9079.v12i2p97-106

Keywords:

Amphibians, Geographical distribution, Niche models, Threatened species, Uruguay

Abstract

Species distributions are linked with climate. Among the effects predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are changes in precipitation patterns and increases in mean temperatures - factors potentially having a major impact on threatened, rare, and endemic species. Using models to forecast possible changes in the distributions of different species under different climate-change scenarios, we can identify probable impacts on species and build effective conservation strategies. We modeled the effects of two climate-change scenarios on the geographical distribution of the regionally endemic bufonid, Melanophyrniscus montevidensis, categorized vulnerable by the IUCN and as endangered by the Uruguayan Red List of amphibians. Ecological niche models were generated to describe the present and possible future distributions of this species in 2050 and 2080, given severe (A2) and moderate (B2) climatic changes. Legacy data for M. montevidensis were obtained from Uruguayan biocollections and climate data were acquired from the WorldClim database. At present, M. montevidensis could occur along the Atlantic Uruguayan coast and a small section of the southern Brazilian coast. However, changes in climate may lead to a loss of suitable environmental conditions for this toad; thus, this endangered species in vulnerable and in urgent need of protection.

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Published

2014-02-10

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Articles

How to Cite

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of an Endangered Species: Melanophryniscus montevidensis (Anura: Bufonidae). (2014). Phyllomedusa: Journal of Herpetology, 12(2), 97-106. https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2316-9079.v12i2p97-106