Como o volume de negociação reage ao sentimento do investidor?

Palavras-chave: Sentimento de investidor, Mercado de ações, Finanças comportamentais

Resumo

A economia comportamental ampliou a forma de entender as negociações no mercado de ações. Investidores com diferentes expectativas de otimismo (ou pessimismo) e confiança tendem a negociar de formas distintas no curto e longo prazo. Além disso, seus vieses comportamentais tendem a ser uma das causas subjacentes da não linearidade e da assimetria existente no mercado de ações, fator que dificulta uma análise precisa dessa relação. Por meio de uma abordagem não linear de atrasos distribuídos autorregressivos assimétricos foram analisadas detalhadamente as conexões não lineares e assimétricas de curto e longo prazo entre o sentimento do investidor e o volume de negociação no mercado americano entre 2004 a 2017. Os resultados, além de confirmarem que os vieses comportamentais influenciam o declínio do volume de negócios, indicam que o volume de negociação reage rapidamente à presença de investidores com menor nível de confiança e que essa relação é profundamente assimétrica no longo prazo. A partir destas evidências é presumível que em momentos de baixa liquidez a confiança dos investidores decline e sua aversão ao risco aumente, e por isso diminuam suas negociações para evitar resultados negativos.

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Publicado
2019-12-26
Como Citar
Marschner, P. F., & Ceretta, P. S. (2019). Como o volume de negociação reage ao sentimento do investidor?. Revista De Contabilidade E Organizações, 13, e163596. https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1982-6486.rco.2019.163596
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