Survival analysis in non-congenital neurological disorders related to dengue, chikungunya and Zika virus infections in Northeast Brazil

Abstract

The Northeast of Brazil has experienced a triple epidemic, with the simultaneous circulation of dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV), which may have contributed to the observed increase across this region of atypical forms of disease and deaths. In view of this fact, non-congenital neurological disorders related to arboviruses were compared with other etiologies, mortality and survival rates of patients admitted to referral neurology hospitals in Pernambuco State, Northeast Brazil, from 2015 to 2018. Blood and cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected and tested using molecular and serological assays. The arbovirus-exposed groups were compared with respect to epidemiological, clinical and neurologic characteristics by using the Pearson’s chi-square test. For the survival analysis, the Kaplan-Meier and Hazard Ratio (HR) tests were used, with a 95% confidence interval (CI). Encephalitis and encephalomyelitis were more frequent in arboviruses, while myelitis predominated in the neurological disorders of other etiologies. Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) was similarly distributed amongst the groups. Exposure to one of the arboviruses caused a six-fold increase in the risk of death (HR: 6.37; CI: 2.91 - 13.9). Amongst the arbovirus-exposed groups, infection (DENV/CHIKV) increased nine times the risk of death (HR: 9.07; CI: 3.67 - 22.4). The survival curve indicates that have been exposed to some arbovirus decreased the likelihood of survival compared to those with other etiologies (Log-Rank: p<0.001). Within this scenario, neurologic manifestations of DENV, CHIKV and ZIKV have the potential to increase mortality and decrease survival, and concomitant infection (DENV/CHIKV) is an aggravating factor in reducing the likelihood of survival when compared to monoinfections.