An approximate analytical formula for estimating the weight of factors affecting the spread of COVID-19: a case study of the first wave

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we live our lives for the foreseen future. To date, there have been over 113 million reported cases and 2.5 million deaths worldwide. Many studies investigated the factors affecting the number of daily cases such as weather conditions, lockdown duration and other factors. In this study, we propose a COVID-19 analytical formula for factors contributing to the number of the new coronavirus daily cases. We have also calculated values of relative weights of those factors. We focus on the first wave data that are publically available. Seven countries were considered including the UK, Italy, Spain, Canada, South Korea, Germany and France. We considered the following factors: temperature, humidity, government expenditure, lockdown hours and the number of daily tests for COVID-19 performed. The weights were calculated based on the hypothesis that a high correlation between recorded data of a given pair of countries implies a high correlation of the pair’s COVID-19 proposed analytical formula. The factors are calculated using the brute-force technique. Our results showed that in five out of the seven countries; temperature, humidity, and lockdown duration were the most dominant with values of 26%, 32% and 38%, respectively. In other countries, however, humidity, government expenditure and the daily performed tests for COVID-19 were the most effective factors, with relative values of 35%, 26%, and 28%.