Associations of SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold values with age, gender, sample collection setting, and pandemic period

Abstract

Cycle threshold (Ct) values in COVID-19 reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests estimate the viral load in biological samples. Studies have investigated variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral load, aiming to identify factors associated with higher transmissibility. Using the results from tests performed between May/2020-July/2022 obtained from the database of a referent hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil, we investigated associations between Ct values and patient’s age, gender, sample collection setting and pandemic period according to the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant locally. We also examined variations in Ct values, COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and vaccination coverage over time. The study sample included 42,741 tests. Gender was not significantly associated with Ct values. Age, sample collection setting and the pandemic period were significantly associated with Ct values even after adjustment to the multivariable model. Results showed lower Ct values in older groups, during the Gamma and Delta periods, and in samples collected in emergency units; and higher Ct values in children under 10 years old, home-based tests, during the Omicron period. We found evidence of a linear trend in the association between age and Ct values, with Ct values decreasing as age increases. We found no clear temporal associations between Ct values and local indicators of COVID-19 incidence, mortality, or vaccination between February/2020-November/2022. Our findings suggest that SARS-CoV-2 Ct values, a proxy for viral load and transmissibility, can be influenced by demographic and epidemiological variables.