Consumers’ Inflation Expectations in Brazil

Autores

  • Fernando Ormonde Teixeira Fundação Getúlio Vargas
  • Ingrid Christyne Luquett de Oliveira Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística
  • Pedro Guilherme Costa Ferreira Fundação Getúlio Vargas

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-41614733fip

Palavras-chave:

Inflation Expectations, Media, Brazil, Consumers

Resumo

This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer’s inflation expectations. We combine the FGV’s Consumer Survey with the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) indices on inflation (IPCA and regulated prices), the professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report and the media data we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer’s forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and cities as major elements when analyzing the micro-data. Aggregated data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers’ expectations and the professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations’ formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

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Biografia do Autor

Fernando Ormonde Teixeira, Fundação Getúlio Vargas

Pesquisador

Ingrid Christyne Luquett de Oliveira, Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística

Professor

Pedro Guilherme Costa Ferreira, Fundação Getúlio Vargas

Professor

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Publicado

2017-09-30

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Artigo