Fragilidade financeira e volatilidade dos ciclos econômicos no Brasil pós-Plano Real

Palavras-chave: Ciclos Econômicos, Instabilidade Financeira, Fragilidade

Resumo

Fricções financeiras comprometem a eficiência com que sistema financeiro direciona recursos
para o financiamento de gastos com consumo e com investimentos em bens de capital. Imperfeições
no mercado financeiro elevam a volatilidade dos ciclos de econômicos, em razão
de flutuações no prêmio de financiamento externo ou de mudanças no comportamento de
risco dos agentes econômicos. Este artigo investiga se um aumento da fragilidade financeira
compromete a estabilidade dos ciclos econômicos no Brasil. Utilizando dados mensais entre
1996 e 2018, um indicador de fragilidade financeira foi derivado com base no modelo de fator
dinâmico e a estimação de modelos de vetores autorregressivos permitiu analisar o comportamento
deste indicador nos ciclos econômicos. Os resultados indicam que um aumento na
fragilidade financeira compromete o desempenho macroeconômico e revelam a importância
da volatilidade cambial e do componente cíclico do nível de preços para as flutuações de curto
prazo na atividade econômica no Brasil.

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Publicado
2020-03-09
Seção
Artigo