Abertura financeira e a incidência da crise financeira global de 2008-2009: uma abordagem Bayesiana
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53575312moadPalavras-chave:
Abertura financeira, Fluxos de capitais, Crise financeira globalResumo
O objetivo deste trabalho é realizar uma investigação econométrica sobre o papel da abertura financeira na incidência da crise financeira global de 2008-2009. A análise empírica será realizada para uma amostra de 72 países com dados que abrangem o período 1990-2009. A metodologia econométrica utilizada é o bayesian model averaging (BMA). O trabalho
contribui para a literatura em duas dimensões: i) utiliza-se o bayesian model averaging para lidar com o problema de incerteza com relação ao conjunto de variáveis explanatórias em modelos de incidência da crise financeira global de 2008-2009; ii) ademais, utiliza-se um amplo conjunto de índices de abertura financeira (de jure e de facto) e um amplo conjunto
de medidas de incidência da crise financeira global de 2008-2009. Os resultados sugerem: i) não há evidências de que o nível de abertura financeira dos países no período anterior à crise é um determinante robusto da incidência da crise financeira global de 2008-2009; ii) há evidências de que a crise financeira global de 2008-2009 incidiu de forma mais severa em países com maior PIB per capita, maior participação da produção de manufaturas no PIB, maior crescimento do crédito e maior taxa de inflação, no período anterior à crise.
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