Applying Monte Carlo simulation in predicting costs of manufacturing companies: the case of Companhia Vale do Rio Doce
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/rco.v4i10.34781Keywords:
Method of Monte Carlo Simulation, Predicting Costs of Industrial ProductionAbstract
The need for qualified decisions in business environment creates demands for the use of mathematical and statistical methods to assist the decisional process. In this context, this article aims to test the applicability of the method of Monte Carlo simulation to predict changes in production costs in a post-privatization period. To perform the experiment Companhia Vale do Rio Doce - CVRD was chosen, considering its privatization that occurred in 1997. The analyzed variables data were extracted from published financial statements between 1990 and 2004. Production costs (CPV) are simulated in two applications of the method: an application that ignores the effects of privatization and implementation that considers the period after privatization, the reduction of variable costs and the income operating increase. In a privatization process, these effects are expected and were estimated by linear regressions in a previous study by Lustosa and Oliveira (2007). To verify the predictive ability of the method comparative analysis are performed, using statistical tests of means between the real samples and the post-privatization period simulated samples. The results show the suitability of the method in predicting the production costs and consequently assisting the decisional process.Downloads
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