THE DEFAULT IN A CREDIT PROGRAM OF A MINAS GERAIS’ FINANCIAL PUBLIC INSTITUTION: AN ANALYSIS USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION

  • Marcos Antônio de Camargos Faculdade IBMEC de Minas Gerais
  • Mirela Castro Santos Camargos
  • Elisson Alberto Araújo
Keywords: Risk of Credit, Default, Credit Scoring, Logistic Regression.

Abstract

This paper aims to propose an econometric model to estimate the risk of default on credit granted by apublic financial institution of the state of Minas Gerais. The model used contractual data, socio-economicpartners and the guarantors and economic-financial firms in a sample of 9,232 firms drawn from apopulation of 25,616 cases of financing to micro and small enterprises granted between Jun./97 and Dez./05.We used 22 independent variables related to the contract, the company and partners / guarantors, amongwhich five were important in predicting insolvency, correctly classifying 88.5% of companies. In conclusion,we can say that the amount financed and, consequently, the proportion of it consumed with the financing, are conditions of default, while the value of the assets of the guarantor in relation to funding, the value of fixedinvestments and uptime of the company act as protectors against default.

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Author Biographies

Marcos Antônio de Camargos, Faculdade IBMEC de Minas Gerais
Doutor em Administração pelo CEPEAD-UFMG, professor e pesquisador da Faculdade IBMEC de Minas Gerais
Mirela Castro Santos Camargos
Doutora em Demografia pelo CEDEPLAR-UFMG, professora e pesquisadora da Fundação João Pinheiro.
Elisson Alberto Araújo

Mestre em Administração pela FNH e pesquisador da FNH e da FDC.

Membro do NUCONT - Núcleo de Pesquisas emContabilidade e Finanças

How to Cite
Camargos, M. A. de, Camargos, M., & Araújo, E. (1). THE DEFAULT IN A CREDIT PROGRAM OF A MINAS GERAIS’ FINANCIAL PUBLIC INSTITUTION: AN ANALYSIS USING LOGISTIC REGRESSION. REGE Revista De Gestão, 19(3). https://doi.org/10.5700/issn.2177-8736.rege.2012.49926
Section
Finanças