Mudanças comerciais e estruturais no mercado internacional de celulose: efeitos nos fluxos e preços
Palavras-chave:
celulose, mercado intemacional de celulose, demanda, ofertoResumo
Este estudo analisa a evolugao dos pregos e dos fiuxos da celulose no mercado intemacional, considerando os principals poises exportadores e importadores. Formuiou-se um modelo de comercio intemacional de celulose, sob o pressuposto de que os bens originados em poises diferentessdo ndo-homogeneos do ponto de vista dos consumidores. O modelo e simulado para diversos choques em varidveis exogenas, como mudangas nos deslocadores de demanda e oferto de celulose e cobranga de tarifas na importagdo. Os resultadossugerem que mudangas exogenas que estlmulam o crescimento da demanda de celulose no Japdo e Europa beneficiam todos os parses exportadores, com mais vantagem para o Canada e os Estados Unidos. A taxagdo da celulose no mercado europeu e prejudicial a todos os parses exportadores, em razdo da redugdo nos pregos e nos fluxes comerciais com aquele mercado. Aumentos na produgdo de celulose canadense e brasileira resultam em quedas mais acentuadas nos pregos brasileiros do que nos dos outros parses exportadores. A disponibilidade de celulose brasileira mais barata no mercado aumenta seu consume em todos os parses exportadores.
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Copyright (c) 1997 Antônio Donizette de Oliveira, Orlando Monteiro da Silva, José Luiz Pereira de Rezende
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