Ajuste patrimonial e padrão de rentabilidade dos bancos privados no Brasil durante o Plano Real (1994/98)

Abstract

This article aims at analyzing the main changes in the patrimonial structure of the Brazilian private banking system in 1994/98 in the light of Post Keynesian theory. This approach argues that the liquidity preference of the banks is determined by their expectations, which are formed in a context of uncertainty, considering the trade-off between liquidity and profitability. The article presents some evidences that the banking behavior during the Real Plan can be explained by this theoretical framework: in the first moment of Real Plan the banking system compensates its loss of inflationary revenue by increasing the volume of credit and, as a result, adopting an aggressive financial position; in the second moment, as a result of the banking crisis in 1995, it adopts a defensive position - that is to say, it prefers the liquidity preference instead of assuming risks. The article concludes that banking sector showed a huge competence to adapt to Brazilian macroeconomic context, but this performance was only possible due the public debt financing conditions.