A inconsistência do modelo brasileiro de ajustamento

Abstract

This paper analyses the Brazilian adjustment policies of the last three years, using a simple macroeconomic model. The model emphasizes the trade-off between inflation and real output implict in the balance of payments constraint and the role of the excess indebtedness of the public sector. The policy system derived from the model is inconsistent, leading the economy to increasing macroeconomic instability and to a hyperinflationary regime. Under this argument, only an institutional reform that guarantee certain intertemporal conditions presented in the paper can replace the economy an a stable path for prices and output in the long run.