Além do ajuste: uma nota sobre dilemas e limitações da industrialização brasileira na segunda metade dos anos 80

Abstract

This paper evaluates the medium run perspectives of the Brazilian economy, against the background of the adjustment effort of the 1981-84 period. The evolution of the Brazilian economy from 1975 to 1984 is analized with special attention being given to the performance of the industrial sector during these years. Accordingly, the sources of demand growth are identified in terms of domestic demand expansion, export expansion and import substitution, respectively. The 1984 recovery is analyzed and the atypical economic conditions of this year are specified. Simulations of the growth impact of Brazilian exports are then developed. The basic conclusion of this work is that exports alone will not be able to provide a source for sustained growth in the next years. It is worth mentioning, however, that major structural changes have taken place in the Brazilian Economy amidst adjustment efforts of the last years. Lower import needs — particulary, in the energy field — and the growing competitiveness of Brazilian exports are positive aspects observed and which should be taken into account for the definition of a growth strategy for the future.