Preço internacional do petróleo no longo prazo

Abstract

One of the planners' greatest concemings is how to get long run estimates for a number of variables. Among them, the long term oil price is of crucial importance for those who have been envolved in energy substitution programmes. The main attempts to obtain this estimates have not been successful, even when high-powered models have been used. First there is the fact that those models show quite different results to each other. Secondly, no one of the models seem to have successfully predicted movements in the long run oil price. In face of that, the main task of this paper is not to foresee the long run oil price trend, but rather, it is an attempt to establish an upward limit to oil price increase. To accomplish this task it resorts to a powerful postulate with in economic theory according to which "the princes of goods cannot rise beyond the marginal production costs of their nearest substitutes". Also, it resorts to the economic theory of the exaustible resources, as far as the notion of "backstop technology" is concerned. The first part of the paper describes the chief technical features of the synthetic fuels derived from coal, taken as the oil nearest substitutes. The second one, shows the synfuels marginal production costs, taking into accountthe ten most promising conversion technologies ("backstop technologies"), as well asthe main aspects of the exaustible resources theory. These last two ingredients will enable us to answer the question posed by the paper which is, if any, the limit of oil price increase in the long run?