Ciclos clássicos num ambiente de racionalidade limitada

Abstract

This paper starts from the macrodynamical model developed by Richard M. Goodwin, which was first shown in the seminal paper A Growth Cycle (Goodwin, 1967). In this model it was described an interaction between income-distribution and capital accumulation that generates a growth cycle swinging along a balanced growth path. The objective of this work is to investigate the possibility of existence of goodwinian cycles with heterogeneity in wage and in profit rates. This task is carried out considering the competitive process among workers within a context of bounded-rationality. The competitive process was modelled on the bases of two tools: (i) islands´s allegory which has been broadly adopted in the modern macroeconomics in order to apprehend situations of imperfect information; and (ii) the analytic instruments developed by the evolutionary game theory applied to the social environment. The model built combines Goodwin´s model with a stylized formalization of the workers flow as a process of imitation within a context of bounded-rationality (social-based replicator dynamics). In this model two results are demonstrated: the possibility of the economy not converge to a long run equilibrium and the possibility of the economy to present a goodwinian cycle with heterogeneity in wage and in profit rates.