Um procedimento para prever recessões no Brasil a partir de indicadores antecedentes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-4161201545115lbnKeywords:
Extreme events, Forecast, Fractal analysis, Discriminant analysisAbstract
The goal of this paper is to test for Brazil a new recession forecasting approach that has
been proposed by authors from other research fields, such as physics, which can be
useful for predicting extreme events also in economy. From the unemployment series
(1985-2012) smoothed by splines, we first identify through fractal analysis variables
that present co-movement along the period of analysis. Next, we used discriminant
analysis to identify leading indicators for the unemployment series. We concluded that
unemployment periods are in general preceded by an one year lagged improvement
in terms of trade, rises in imports, and by decreases in minimum real wages measured
in terms of in PPP.
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