Testes de cointegração e um modelo de correção de erro para a balança comercial brasileira
Keywords:
trade balance, units roots, cointegration, error correction modelAbstract
The purpose of the article is to report the results of
cointegration tests and to present an error correction
representation for the Brazilian trade balance. The main assumptions of the simple theoretical model adopted in the paper were validated by the cointegration tests, which suggested that the trade balance is related in the long run to the real exchange rate and to the relative pressure of demand, the latter being given by the evolution of domestic income vis-a-vis world income. The error correction models indicated that changes in the levels of domestic and world income and the correction of past deviations from the long-run equilibrium are the main forces determining the short-run dynamics of the Brazilian trade balance.
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Copyright (c) 1993 Afonso Henriques Borges Ferreira
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